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Projecting With Advanced Stats (Part 2)

The answer is 42

Interesting stuff, Brian. I didn't know WP and WS were that accurate (mostly within +/- 3 wins). I guess the one factor that can't be predicted easily (and that you factored out by using exact minutes) is injuries.

I'm curious as to how the 09-10 projections got to be so low. Was the downgrade because of the loss of Miller that significant?

Another question: for veteran players' predictions, did you use the WP/48 and WS/48 for the previous season only, or a running average over, say, the past three seasons?

For predicting next year, the hard part will be how to estimate the production of rookies. Reminds me of playing Strat-o-Matic as a kid, and I had to create a card of Barkley for the 84-85 Sixers (wasn't too far off, either).

I went with previous year only, that was as much time as I had to put into it.

Yeah, when you're looking back, you have the exact minutes played, for tomorrow's post, there's a whole lot of guesswork involved.

I'll include all the tables with the final post in the series, some interesting stuff in there.

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Joe reply to Statman on Sep 22 at 16:58
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Don't forget this post from Brian.

The highest WP number is 9.7 over the past 4 years. The highest WS number is 6.5.

A real solid season for a rookie would be around 5-6. Rookies typically don't make a big impact. Last year shows they can, though, as Curry, Evans, and Blair were all stellar.

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mchezo reply to Statman on Sep 23 at 7:14
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Hey statman. Here is a link to an article that analyzes Miller's impact and other issues using advanced stats.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/06/25/trading-away-your-second-most-productive-player-when-you-lose/

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