I'm going to dip into the vernacular of the medical field for two phrases for today's entry in the radical idea series. DNR (do not resuscitate) and "First do no harm." I'll explain after the jump.
I think it's safe to say the final 7 games of the regular season and the 6th and final game of the playoffs had all of us out on the ledge. We saw the Sixers play some of the worst basketball we've ever seen in extremely important games. We all got to work immediately on our laundry list of offseason needs for the Sixers. The knee-jerk reaction as we head into the Summer is to fill some of those needs in a big way. That may be the right approach. I've come up with a couple of scenarios that fit into that mold, but today we're going to play devil's advocate.
Think back to this time last year. The Sixers had cap space to play with, and it looked like they weren't going to have anyone worthwhile to spend it on. There was a hope that Josh Smith could be stolen from Atlanta, but no matter how much we offered him, Atlanta could've matched. It seemed doubtful that Elton Brand would opt out. That left guys like Antawn Jamison, Corey Maggette and not a whole lot more on the free agent market. The Sixers had the #16 pick in a shallow draft, by all accounts.
Fast forward to early July and against all odds, the Sixers landed the biggest fish out there, Elton Brand. The low-post presence had been found. Later in the Summer, Ed Stefanski lured three minimum-wage veterans to fill out his roster and made another signing. Pretty much everyone was psyched. The Sixers put the pieces in place to at a minimum move up in the Eastern Conference, possibly contend.
Obviously, that's not how things worked out. Both Andres and Brand got off to slow starts. It quickly became obvious that Mo Cheeks was not the man to lead this particular team anywhere but to the lottery. Changes were made and then Brand went down with what would become a season-ending injury.
The team rallied behind their new coach, their old style and gave us all hope (false or otherwise). Then they pulled the rug out from under us. Now our floor general is probably leaving for greener grass (if the grass is really greener on the left coast) and we're pretty much right back where we were in October, only without Andre Miller.
So, what is this radical idea that I've just spent way too many words setting up? Well, it's simple. Don't do anything this Summer that can't be undone within 2 years. Sam Dalembert, Willie Green and Reggie Evans all have bad contracts, but here's the thing. As time goes by, those bad contracts will turn from anchors to assets. Couple that with the fact that we still don't know what a lineup with Brand at the 4, Thad at the 3 and Iguodala at the 2 is really capable of and I think you have more than enough reason to give it another year.
This means if you use the MLE, you use it for a two-year deal, preferably for a veteran who can shoot. This does not mean you avoid all trades like the plague, but it means you don't swap any of your bad contracts for longer bad contracts. To be specific, this is the the blueprint:
- Find the right coach. Think defense first.
- Concentrate on the draft, pick the player(s) you want, then do what you need to to get them (trade up, buy a second pick in the second round, etc.) It's imperative that you come out of the draft with a point.
- Let Andre Miller walk, if you do a sign-and-trade, make for a deal no longer than 2 years. Preferably, an expiring deal and a future first-round pick.
- Use the MLE or bi-annual to bring some three-point shooting to the team, but only on a two-year deal, at most. Stay patient, wait for the big names to sign elsewhere, then find bargains. (Anthony Carter, Jarret Jack, Anthony Parker, Morris Almond, Von Wafer, Juan Dixon and Rodney Carney are a few to keep an eye on)
The goal here is simple, use 2009-2010 to install a new, smarter system, assess the pieces you have in place and once you've seen where the weaknesses truly are, then you plot your course going forward in 2010-2011 with a three attractive expiring deals as trade bait.
Now, could you consider this giving up on 2009-2010 before it even begins? Possibly. Or maybe the new coach can work some magic with this roster, then you can make a big trade mid-season. Or maybe they catch lightning in a bottle with their draft pick(s) and things progress quicker than we thought. If you do opt to go this route, I think you should still look to deal Lou Williams, if at all possible. His contract is long and if you can trade him for a dead-eye three-point shooter, you pull the trigger. Jason Kapono, would be a good fit.
Thoughts in the comments, as usual. More ideas to come...
Brian, that is probably the most logical approach but does the organization and fans have the patience?
After watching the Lakers/rockets, a couple thoughts.
- Like how the Rockets use their 2 pointguards. Each has a very different style. If we get(draft?) a contrasting point to Lou Will preferrably a more aggressive defender with a 3pt shot. Use the competition to determine playing time. Don't know which point in the draft is the best choice.
- Farmar may be available in the offseason. Kind of like his game. Don't know how'd you get him.
I wouldn't use the full MLE on Farmar and I wouldn't sign him for more than 2 years. If you can get him without doing either of those things, I'm fine with it. Obviously, that won't happen, though.
Brian, I have to disagree with you; radical, no, sane, yes; this is the mindset this organization needs to take.Instead of another stopgap [A.Parker?] veteren,similar to what A.Miller was,use the m.l.e. on a young player or, what I would prefer, use that money to acquire a late first round pick.Come out of this draft with a new young backcourt [Maynor,Ellington; T.Williams,Collison; or my favorite Holliday[great defender],Thornton].Than the young foundation is set and in 2 years Elton and Iggy are given the third of their "big three" whether it be Paul, Koby [a man can dream] or whoever may be available.Now I know some of the 20 million we clear will go to the young guys but with so much young talent one of those guys may become the "third amigo" without reaching for a free agent. By the way, Elton missing the last 2 seasons may add a year to his career and give us a longer timetable.
I sure hope the two-year layoff adds some miles onto the end of his odometer.
S.F.W., A.Brooks has to give E.S. a good feeling as far as L.Will. is concerned. He was a scorer in college and a bench scorer his first couple of years in the pros.He was handed the reigns of a possible championship team and,3" shorter than L.Will., seems to not hurt them too much defensively.Maybe L.Will. deserves a training camp audition and competition with whoever we bring in to challenge for the one spot.
i've been so impressed with aaron brooks. he's shot like 40% from 3 over the past 2-3 months.
Don't believe Lowry is a starting NBA point guard but he is perfect in his role. 2 good young inexpensive guards alternating at the point for Houston. Also, Love to have Wafer as a shooter off the bench.
I think the overall approach of aiming for 2-3 years from now makes sense. That is when hopefully all of the players will be closest to their prime while Brand is still effective.
Unfortunately, even best case, that will yield a good but not contending team. But I can't think of any bolder moves that would have them a contender in the next three years- and there are a lot of ways to mess things up with trades or signings to long term deals.
I put up a thread/poll about this last week at realgm: http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=903419 (Poll: Realistic scenario where the Sixers contend in 3 yrs?)
You can see from the poll results that people are evenly divided over how to proceed, and whether there is a chance to be a contender in that window.
I guess it at least keeps things interesting.
the kings are interviewing eddie jordan next week. geoff petrie is apparently a big fan. this would not bother me in the least, as i really don't want jordan as our next coach.
Yeah, I'm crossing my fingers that the Kings move quickly to get Jordan. I don't want him either.
Simply, I agree with this more than any other. Would like a year w/ Brand healthy. I would prefer a sign and trade but definitely no more than 2 years on the contract(s) given to us.
I'm with you all the way except for the Jason Kapono thing. I think we've leaned over the last couple of years that just bringing in a shooter is not going to solve our problems from distance. This year we signed a couple of pure shooters (Marshall Law and Kareem Rush) to fill out the bench, and it did nothing for our shooting. What we need is a shooter with at least one other appreciable skill. Otherwise, how are we going to get that person on the court? Kapono is a perfect example of a player with just enough skill to entice GMs but not enough skill to make regular contributions for a winner.
Here's Hollinger's scouting report on Kapono (and keep in mind that it was reason before this season, in which Kapono's PER fell significantly short of Hollinger's expectations): "You know your defense might be an issue when the Bobcats are running isos for Matt Carroll to attack you off the dribble. Charlotte wasn't the only one -- opponents attacked Kapono any time he stepped on the court, and his inability to respond kept him on the bench despite his solid shooting. In fact, it was an early-season torching by the Bucks' Desmond Mason that started Kapono's season going downhill.
Kapono is a subpar athlete who ranked dead last among small forwards in both rebounds and blocks per minute, and second to last in free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt. He's a decent ball handler but had an unusually high turnover rate for a catch-and-shoot guy last season."
Not for us.
Yeah Kapono may have the highest 3Pt FG% ever(and he does) but he is a horrible player. No thanks. For the right price? Sure and a spot shooter off the bench.
Would you trade Lou for him? I mean, if you go in with your eyes wide open, knowing this guy is only a spot-up shooter off the bench, and you're also getting out from under 2 years, $10.5M on the back end of Lou's contract.
I don't know, I'd consider it. Play him at the two for 15 minutes/game and try to hide his defense. I mean, they basically have to hide Lou's defense, right?
Of course you trade lou for him (or willie, just one of them has to go).