All signs point to Thad Young returning to action tonight against the Celtics in the Sixers penultimate game of the regular season. Thad thinks he'll be good for 15-20 minutes tonight, and will also play tomorrow night in Cleveland in the finale. After the jump we'll talk about how important for the team it is that he'll be back on the floor for these two games.
Let me preface this by saying I have to believe Thad's ankle is very, very close to 100%. I don't think there's any chance the trainers and coaches would've let him back on the floor if the ankle was gimpy in those workouts yesterday.
Now, why is it important for the Sixers? Well, first we have to get one thing out of the way. If you're going to hang your head and wait for the Sixers to be swept out of the first round, you should probably stop reading right now. If that's your attitude heading in, and I'm not saying that attitude isn't warranted, then nothing I have to say from here on out is going to matter to you. If you want to talk about mismatches and possibilities, then continue on.
The Sixers will face either Boston or Orlando in the first round. Most likely, it'll be Boston, but in either case, a healthy Thad Young will be a huge advantage for the Sixers. In case you've been hiding in a cave for the past couple of months, Boston has been without their best player, Kevin Garnett, basically since the All Star break. They tried to bring him back, but his balky knee didn't cooperate. Then they said he'd back for tonight's game, then they said he'd be back for the final game of the season. Finally, they changed their timeline to having him return for the first round of the playoffs. I'd like to point you to something
Kate Fagan wrote about Thad's return earlier today:
Without his full quickness and explosiveness, not to mention his
limited cardiovascular capacity after a 2-week layoff, it's anyone's
guess how effective Young would be tonight against the Celtics and
tomorrow in the finale at Cleveland.
This is a very good point. It does take a toll on your wind to sit out for a couple of weeks. Now imagine sitting out for a couple of months. Oh, and instead of being a 20 year-old kid with fresh legs, imagine you're a 32 year-old veteran and you have 42,624 NBA minutes on your odometer. Oh, and also imagine that if/when you do finally get back on the court, you're going to be tasked with guarding that 20-year old kid as he sprints up and down the court.
Now, let's say they wind up facing Orlando in the first round. Well, the Magic have injury concerns of their own, and those injuries have depleted their forward positions as well. Hedo Turkoglu sprained his ankle the other night and his status for the first round is up in the air. Their other forward, Rashard Lewis, has been slowed by knee tendinitis.
When you're an underdog heading into a series, you have to find something to latch onto, something to exploit. If Hedo is out, Orlando doesn't have a three who can even come close to Iguodala. If Lewis is gimpy, there's no way he can guard a full-speed Thad. Boston's achilles heel all season long has been turnovers, they have the third-worst turnover rate in the league. That means running opportunties, that means Thad beating Garnett down the floor with regularity, if he's healthy.
That's why it's so important that he's back on the floor the tonight (if in fact he is). These two games will be about Thad getting his legs back under him so he's full speed come playoff time. If he is, then maybe there's something we can hang our hats on in the first round. Something the team can consistently go to. Think of it this way, if Thad was out until the first round, then we'd either be seeing him for 15-20 minutes in game 1 while he built his wind back up and knocked off the rust, or we'd be seeing a winded Thad trying to play 30 minutes. This way, we get that stuff out of the way before the games really start to matter.
As for the next two games, and the lifeless collection of bodies we've called the Sixers over the past five games. Well, something
Jordan said today struck a nerve. "I have a problem with people questioning this team's heart or effort.
I'm not going to sit here are say that every NBA player or every NBA
team wants to win, but I'm 99 percent sure the Sixers do."
You know what, Jordan's right. It's not fair to say the Sixers don't want to win. They do. But have they wanted to win more than the other team over the past five games? I don't think so. They haven't had that hunger that makes you push yourself further than the other guy. That makes you the first guy on the floor for a loose ball. That makes you want to push the ball, and force the action. That hunger has been missing for some reason and I'm hoping that Thad's return can re-light that fire in his teammates. Honestly, I think Thad hates losing more than anyone else on the team. That might be the biggest thing they've been missing.
Good to have something positive to focus on with Thad returning.
Looking back at when the injury happened I was hoping to see other players step up...
-Lou stepped up not just scoring more, but scoring more efficiently. I don't know where Lou had been the last 15 months (since Lee tackled him and the broken toe), but its good to see him stepping up his game at the right time. i won't hold it too much against him that it was in losing efforts.
-Wanted to see Speights step up. He does seem to be less in a funk, but he still has lost his edge. There had been games where he was a dominant force for 5 minute stretches. Have not seen much of that in the last 2 months.
-Expected Miller and Iguodala to step up their scoring. Both ended up hurting more than they helped the team by trying to carry too much of the load. Too many TO's for Iguodala, too many missed shots for Miller. In fact, I think Miller has been spent for the last month- at least since the calf injury.
Hopefully Thad can quickly reassert his role as the primary scorer. That should help the Andres return to a more complementary role that best utilizes their talent.
Turnovers were only an issue for the Andres twice in 8 games (Iggy vs. Toronto, Miller vs. Milwaukee). Miller's been shooting a bit too much, Iggy seems to be in line w/ season averages.
If anything, having Thad on the floor should help the Andres in that they have someone to pass to not named Reggie Evans, Willie Green or Samuel Dalembert.
And just having someone to pass to states it all!
I did not mean it as an attack on Iguodala.
Iguodala tried to step up his game, but he really is not a natural scorer or a dominant individual player on offense. He did not play poorly (and he was the best player on the team) but he was not able to pick up the offensive slack in Thad's absence. As you point out, if anything he struggled losing a legitimate weapon alongside him.
My only real disappointment with Iguodala this year- aside from the slow start- has been him lousy outside shooting. If anything, his jumper has gotten worse over the last 2 years. Most players improve their jumpers over time, but Iguodala has lousy rain-making form.
To his credit, he takes the ball to the hole more, and has really improved his finishing ability and added a good left hand to his inside moves.
Look at his shooting stats over the past 3 years. Iguodala is taking a higher proportion of inside shots, but his eFG% on jumpers has dropped from a nearly respectable low 40's to a poor upper 30's.
It also makes me wonder if Lou will ever get a reliable enough jumper to maximize his game. His shot might be too flat to ever be consistent.
Iggy's jumper numbers dropped when Iverson left and the percentage of feet-set, wide-open jumpers he took plummeted. I'm really hoping he and Thad will both go back to that shooting coach this Summer. Lou's jumper isn't structurally flawed, I think his low percentage is from taking too many fadeaways and contested jumpers. When his feet are set, he's just a little below-average, I'd bet.
Iguodala's eFG% on jumpers per 82games:
2006-7: 37%... the year AI was traded. Big drop from earlier 'catch and shoot' AI years
2007-8: 42%... good jump. Only a few percentage points below guys like Kobe (46%). I was hoping his jumper was headed in that direction
2008-9: 38%... disappointing. he compensated by taking more inside shots, and getting better at finishing in the lane.
Overall, Iguodala's lack of a reliable jumper is really holding him back from taking the next step to being a 20+ ppg offensive weapon. he still could improve his jumper to that 44% range, but given the worse number (include FT%) in the last year, I don't see signs of improvement.
Yeah, the FT% is the most alarming thing to me, and really speaks to fundamental flaws in his form. I just don't get how you go from shooting 82% down to 72%. That's a difference of .55 points/game, according to this year's numbers. Ugh.
Both Jon Barry and Jalen Rose picked Thad as the most improved player this year. I dont agree with that hes up there but i would give it to Durant but it's nice to see him get some recognition.
I'd give it to Durant as well.
Interesting, just heard on ESPN Cavs have clinched home court advantage. So, Wednesday maybe a winable game SINCE 76ERS BEAT LA LAST MONTH!
I find this very interesting.
It'll depend mostly on which Sixers team shows up, and then on whether Cleveland cares about finishing 40-1 at home.
So, what are the odds of the sixers finishing 2-0. I, usually wrong, predict 10% chance. Very little.
50% chance of finishing 1-1 however IMO
And hopefully I am wrong again!
I can agree with the Sixers not being as hungry as their opponents in the past couple games. There's a difference in wanting to win and dying to win.
If you want to know what I'm talking about, watch this interview with Kobe after the Blazer's loss. The intensity in his voice says it all.
http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/4/10/830573/ju-mad-kobe-lol
That is one angry rapist, allegedly.
I'd like to see a Sixer react like that though. It seems like Andre Iguodala is too politically correct after games.
Remember Miller's reaction after game 1 of the playoffs last season? I'm looking for the video right now, but you're right, that's exactly what we need to see.
Check here for the quote, can't find the video.
No Ray Allen tonight:
http://www.boston.com/sports/basketball/celtics/extras/celtics_blog/2009/04/ray_allen_suspe.html
So that means the celtic are back to their pre KG signing lottery ways???
Yep, except you can pencil in Mikki Moore at PF instead of Al Jefferson :)
THis should be a good night. Dollar concessions and a win. They better win, guys. They are the only one that has anything to play for and they HAVE TO WIN. What are our chances now, I think good.
Sixers are favored by 6 now and espn's computer has them winning. I don't like those odds.